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How is the war in Ukraine going, and can peace talks end it?

Russia agreed in principle to restart US-mediated talks this week, then hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles within hours. Washington has meanwhile eased some pressure on Moscow, and the war is now reaching the Black Sea and the airspace of NATO members.

Published 17 Oct 2026 Updated 23 Oct 2026 By Implica 24 sources 9 min read

THE SHORT ANSWER

The war is largely deadlocked on the ground, with both sides striking deep by missile and drone, and talks have not yet stopped the fighting. The Kremlin says Putin agreed in principle to three-way talks with the US and Ukraine after November 10. Hours after that, Russia fired ballistic missiles at Kyiv. Meanwhile President Trump waived a US law that would have punished buyers of Russian oil, easing pressure on Moscow.

What happened

This week US envoy Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, and the Kremlin said Putin agreed in principle to three-way talks after November 10. Hours later Russia fired wave after wave of ballistic missiles at Kyiv. At least two people were killed and dozens hurt across a dozen regions. Ukraine sent 630 drones toward Moscow.

The front lines have stayed largely deadlocked, while Russia has escalated missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure, railways and industry. On 8 October a Russian glide bomb hit two buses in Kramatorsk, in the eastern Donetsk region, killing at least 30 people. Russia has pressed toward the city's eastern outskirts. On 17 October Trump signed an executive order waiving the sanctions and tariffs in the Lindsey Graham Act, which Congress passed by large bipartisan margins. The tariffs of up to 100% would have hit the five biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas. Days earlier the US Treasury extended licenses for Lukoil's foreign assets to 24 April 2027, and the Trump administration moved to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel imports until April.

The war is also spreading outward. On Friday 23 October a drone sank the cargo ship Khoryv off Romania. Romania blames Russia. One sailor died, three are missing and nine were rescued. At least seven cargo ships have been hit off Romania and Bulgaria in two weeks, with about 30 sailors dead or missing. NATO says it will send more patrol aircraft, radars and drones to the Black Sea. The same day the White House said Melania Trump had secured a local pause in fighting in Oleshky from 29 October. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has confirmed it. Ukraine also says its military Starlink internet is still capped at a slower speed, despite Trump saying Elon Musk restored it.

Why it matters

The invasion began more than four and a half years ago, and the war is now Europe's deadliest since World War Two. Talks are being revived at a moment when US pressure on Moscow is easing and relations between Washington and Kyiv are strained. Zelenskyy is using the missile strikes to press Western partners for Patriot air-defense interceptors and tougher sanctions. Whether the talks produce anything will depend on that balance of pressure, and on whether Russia's strikes continue while diplomats meet.

  • For Ukrainians, Missiles and drones keep hitting cities from Kyiv to Kramatorsk, and the Starlink speed cap limits the drones and air defenses meant to stop them. In Oleshky, about 2,000 mostly elderly residents are waiting to see whether a pause really arrives.
  • For Zelenskyy's government, Ukraine depends on US goodwill for weapons, intelligence and communications while Washington pushes it toward a deal. Kyiv is asking for interceptors and sanctions at the moment the US has waived a sanctions law.
  • For buyers of Russian oil, China and India are spared the threat of 100% tariffs, and the diesel and Lukoil licenses keep some Russian fuel trade moving. Russian export revenue is under less US pressure than Congress intended.
  • For NATO's eastern members and shippers, Romania, Bulgaria and Lithuania now face drones and attacks on shipping at their borders. Insurers and shipowners must decide whether the Danube corridor off Constanta and Varna is still worth the risk.

The background: a war that began in 2014 and widened in 2022

Shared roots and independence

Russia, Ukraine and Belarus all claim heritage from Kievan Rus', a medieval state centered on Kyiv that adopted Byzantine Orthodoxy between the ninth and eleventh centuries. After the Mongol invasion, the histories of the peoples of Russia and Ukraine diverged. In 1932 and 1933 the Holodomor, a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine, killed up to 7.5 million Ukrainians.

Ukraine became independent as the Soviet Union collapsed. It declared independence on 24 August 1991 and confirmed it in a referendum that December. It inherited the third largest nuclear stockpile in the world. In 1994 Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum, a political agreement giving Ukraine security assurances.

2013 and 2014: Euromaidan, Crimea and Donbas

In 2013 Ukraine's parliament overwhelmingly approved finalising an association agreement with the European Union. Russia pressed Ukraine to reject it and imposed economic sanctions. In November President Viktor Yanukovych suddenly withdrew from signing. He was later ousted in what Ukrainians call the Revolution of Dignity.

On 27 February 2014 Russian military men with no insignia seized key buildings in Crimea. A referendum on joining Russia was held under Russian military occupation, and the EU and the United States denounced it. In May 2014 Russian-controlled armed groups seized government buildings in Donbas, the eastern industrial region. The fighting there, the War in Donbas, ran until 2022, with the Minsk agreements failing to end it.

February 2022: the full-scale invasion

Russia massed troops near Ukraine's borders from March and April 2021, and again from October 2021. Russian officials, including Putin, denied plans to invade until the day before. On 24 February 2022 Putin announced a special military operation and Russian forces attacked from the north, south and east. Russian regular forces numbered nearly 150,000.

The aim of a quick victory failed. Ukraine pushed back the northern arm of the attack and Russia abandoned the effort to take Kyiv in early April 2022. Russia captured Mariupol by 20 May and held large parts of four regions: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine began counteroffensives in August 2022, and on 30 September Russia declared the annexation of the four regions, which was internationally condemned. The war settled into more conventional fighting in the south and east.

Sanctions and the search for a deal

The invasion brought new Western sanctions and export controls on Russia. The EU has added successive packages since 2022, and its 22nd was agreed on 7 October 2026. The US sanctioned the Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft in October 2025, and Washington has since repeatedly extended narrow licenses so Lukoil's foreign operations can keep running while buyers are sought.

Peace talks began four days after the invasion, in Belarus on 28 February 2022. In Istanbul that March the negotiators drafted a framework in which Ukraine would end its NATO plans and become neutral in exchange for security guarantees. The talks ended without a deal. In June 2024 Putin said Russia must keep all the land it occupies and be handed all the provinces it claims. Zelenskyy had proposed a 10-point plan in November 2022 calling for Russian withdrawal and a return to Ukraine's borders from before the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

The Trump years: summits, plans and short truces

Donald Trump took office on 20 January 2025 after pledging to end the war. US and Russian delegations met in Riyadh in February. The US paused military aid on 3 March after a clash with Zelenskyy, then resumed it when Ukraine accepted a 30-day ceasefire plan that Russia did not accept. Trump set deadlines for sanctions, then on 8 August 2025 invited Putin to Alaska instead. A planned Budapest summit was cancelled in October.

In late 2025 a draft 28-point US plan was widely criticized as a capitulation to Russia, and Zelenskyy published a revised 20-point plan on 23 and 24 December. Trilateral US, Russian and Ukrainian meetings followed in Abu Dhabi in January and February 2026 and in Geneva in February. The only ceasefires have been short ones, such as a 32-hour truce for Orthodox Easter on 11 April 2026.

Autumn 2026

In early September Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner met Putin in Moscow and secured a three-day halt on strikes on capitals. Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the visit ended, and a Trump and Putin call produced no breakthrough. Zelenskyy said he and Trump agreed to meet in New York at the UN General Assembly.

October then brought the glide bomb strike on Kramatorsk, the waiver of the Graham Act and the missile attack on Kyiv hours after Putin agreed in principle to new talks. The sinkings off Romania added a new front at sea.

GOOD TO KNOW

Oleshky had about 24,000 residents before the war and is now home to roughly 2,000, according to the White House. Russia took it on the first day of the 2022 invasion, and about 90% of it was flooded after the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed.

Why does Starlink matter to Ukraine's war effort?

Starlink is a satellite internet service run by Musk's company SpaceX. Starshield is its military version, built for the Pentagon. Ukraine uses both. The BBC reports that Starshield lets Ukrainian drone operators see targets in real time and fly interceptor drones. Russia is not authorized to use Starlink.

On 13 and 14 October Ukraine said its service had been suddenly restricted. Officials said drones travelling faster than about 161 km/h (100 mph) lost their connection. Zelenskyy said speeds had not yet been restored to 400 km/h. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump called Musk to ask him to lift the limits, and Trump said Musk had put it back. Ukrainian officials say little has changed.

Who ordered the limits is unsettled. Musk says Starshield is owned and controlled by the US government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says speeds are governed by a private commercial contract. Trump says it was not him. Ukraine is waiting for Rubio to report back.

Why are ships near Romania being hit?

The reports so far do not say why Russia is attacking merchant ships, and Russia has not been quoted explaining it. What they do show is where the ships were. The vessels hit lately were anchored near or heading for the Sulina Canal, which links the Danube River to the Black Sea.

That canal has become Ukraine's main export route for grain and food oil because Russia has attacked Ukraine's own Black Sea ports. The Kyiv Independent calls the attacks part of a broader escalation in Russia's economic warfare against Ukraine. NATO has attributed no attack to any state. Warships would need Turkey to lift its refusal to admit foreign navies, so for now the response is aircraft, radars and drones.

Timeline: 1991 to today

INDEPENDENCE

  1. Ukraine declares independence as the Soviet Union collapses, and confirms it by referendum that December.

  2. Russia, the US and the UK sign the Budapest Memorandum, giving Ukraine security assurances.

CRIMEA AND DONBAS

  1. President Yanukovych suddenly withdraws from signing an association agreement with the EU.

  2. Russian military men without insignia seize key buildings in Crimea.

  3. Russian-controlled armed groups seize government buildings in Donbas.

THE FULL-SCALE INVASION

  1. Russia launches its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

  2. Russia and Ukraine open peace talks in Belarus, four days after the invasion.

  3. Talks in Istanbul produce a framework treaty on neutrality and security guarantees, but no deal follows.

  4. Russia abandons its attempt to take Kyiv.

  5. Russia declares the annexation of four partly occupied regions, which is internationally condemned.

TRUMP AND THE TALKS

  1. US and Russian delegations meet in Riyadh to build a framework for negotiations.

  2. Trump hosts Putin in Alaska instead of imposing sanctions on his 8 August deadline.

  3. The US sanctions Lukoil and Rosneft.

  4. US, Russian and Ukrainian envoys begin trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi.

  5. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow and secure a three-day halt on capital strikes.

  6. Russia resumes strikes on Kyiv after the envoys' visit.

OCTOBER 2026

  1. EU ambassadors agree the 22nd sanctions package, with an exemption for a supplier to an Estonian plant.

  2. A Russian glide bomb hits two buses in Kramatorsk, killing at least 30 people.

  3. The US extends its Lukoil licenses through 24 April 2027 while sanctions stay in place.

  4. Trump waives the sanctions and tariffs in the Lindsey Graham Act days before they were due.

  5. NATO says it will send patrol aircraft, radars and drones to the Black Sea.

  6. Russia hits Kyiv with ballistic missiles hours after Putin agrees in principle to three-way talks.

  7. Trump says Musk restored Ukraine's Starlink access, while Kyiv says the speed cap remains.

  8. A drone sinks the cargo ship Khoryv off Romania, and the White House announces an unconfirmed pause in Oleshky from 29 October.

What to watch next

  • Three-way talks. The Kremlin says Putin agreed in principle to US, Russian and Ukrainian talks after November 10, and the material gives no venue or date.
  • Oleshky. The White House says the local pause begins on 29 October, but Russia and Ukraine have not confirmed it.
  • Starlink. Zelenskyy says Rubio promised an answer within about 48 hours on whether speeds can return to up to 400 km/h.
  • The Black Sea. NATO has published no timeline or composition for its extra surveillance, and forensic teams are analyzing explosives from the attacks.

Sources

How this article was made: Implica's editorial system wrote it from the news reports above, with the background drawn from Wikipedia: History of Ukraine, Russia–Ukraine relations, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Peace negotiations in the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present).

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