Why are ships being attacked in the Black Sea?
Merchant ships are being sunk within sight of two NATO members, and sailors are dying. NATO has answered with surveillance, not warships, and has not named who is behind the strikes.
THE SHORT ANSWER
The EU's top diplomat says the aim is to choke Ukraine's grain exports, though no Russian explanation appears in the reports so far. Kaja Kallas accuses the Kremlin of stepping up efforts to hit Ukrainian grain shipments in a bid to starve Kyiv of revenues. At least seven cargo ships have been hit off Romania and Bulgaria in two weeks, with about 30 sailors dead or missing. Recently hit ships were anchored near or heading for the Sulina Canal, Ukraine's main export route since Russia attacked its Black Sea ports. Romania's president blames Russia, but NATO has not attributed any attack to a state.
What happened
On Friday 23 October a drone struck the Khoryv, a cargo ship registered in Comoros, with 13 Ukrainian and Azerbaijani crew. It sent a distress signal from 13 nautical miles off the Romanian port of Constanta, just outside Romanian territorial waters, and then sank. Romanian authorities say nine sailors were rescued, one body was recovered and three are missing. President Nicusor Dan said the attack was part of Russia's escalation in its war in Ukraine. He called on Russia to accept the ceasefire proposals made by the United States and Europe. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said she was "deeply alarmed" and that the attacks "openly defy international law".
Three days earlier, on Tuesday 20 October, NATO said it would send more maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems and drones to the Black Sea. Allied ambassadors had met in Brussels as the North Atlantic Council, NATO's main political decision-making body. NATO spokeswoman Allison Hart said the "additional assets" would support surveillance, reconnaissance and forensics. Members are also sending intelligence teams to analyse explosives. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said a US P-8 Poseidon, a military patrol aircraft, had begun flying over the sea, and that Sofia expects further help. NATO has not published what will be sent or when. On the Saturday before the sinking, Romanian jets shot down two of the latest generation of Russian drones over Romanian territorial waters.
Why it matters
The attacks now fall on ships off two NATO and EU members, close to their ports, and they have killed or left missing around 30 sailors in two weeks. They also target the route Ukraine relies on to sell grain. Kallas warned that the strikes add to a "perfect storm" for global food supplies already hit by droughts and the war in the Middle East. The reports say NATO is also worried about what it sees as increasingly reckless Russian behaviour. Our reading is that the shipping war is where the war in Ukraine now most directly touches allied waters.
- For sailors, Crews, many of them Ukrainian or Azerbaijani, work on ships that are anchored or sailing near the Sulina Canal. The Khoryv's crew of 13 lost one member and three are missing.
- For Ukraine and grain buyers, Ukraine is one of the world's biggest grain and food oil exporters, and the Danube route is now its primary way out. Our earlier report said that if attacks continue, exports could slow and food prices in importing countries may rise.
- For Romania and Bulgaria, Both have asked NATO to do more. Romania has shot down drones in its own waters, and Bulgaria saw its first strike inside its waters on 6 October.
- For shipowners and insurers, If warnings do not reach ships faster, the corridor off Constanta and Varna may come to be treated as a risk to price rather than a route to use. That is our earlier assessment, not a statement from the industry.
The background: a sea with one door and a war on its shore
A sea with six shores
The Black Sea lies between Europe and Asia. Six countries border it: Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. Three large rivers feed it, the Danube, the Dnieper and the Dniester. It reaches the wider ocean only through two narrow straits in Turkey, the Bosporus and the Dardanelles.
A 2013 study by the International Transport Workers' Federation counted at least 30 merchant seaports on the sea, at least 12 of them in Ukraine, and around 2,400 commercial vessels. The Montreux Convention, signed on 20 July 1936, gave Turkey control of the straits and set the rules for who may pass.
2014: Russia takes Crimea
The Russo-Ukrainian war began in February 2014. Russian soldiers without insignia began occupying Crimea on 27 February, and Russia then annexed it. When the occupation began, Russia already had roughly 12,000 Black Sea Fleet personnel on the peninsula, in places including Sevastopol.
The conflict damaged relations between Russia and NATO. The two had cooperated until Russia annexed Crimea and invaded the Donbas region in 2014.
2022: the invasion closes Ukraine's ports
Russia began a full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022. The invasion brought maritime grain shipments from Ukraine to a complete halt. Before the war almost all of Ukraine's wheat, corn and sunflower oil left through its Black Sea ports. The BBC reported that some 20 million tonnes of grain were held up in Odesa. World food prices rose.
On 27 February 2022 Turkey said it would recognise the invasion as a war. That gave it grounds to apply the Montreux Convention to military vessels, and the material says NATO powers also cannot now move their warships from the Mediterranean into the Black Sea.
2022 to 2023: the grain deal and its end
On 22 July 2022 Ukraine and Russia signed separate but matching agreements with Turkey and the United Nations in Istanbul. Ships would use demined corridors, and Turkey would inspect every merchant vessel. Wheat prices fell to pre-war levels. Less than a day after signing, Russian Kalibr missiles hit the port of Odesa. Russia's defence ministry later said it had destroyed a Ukrainian warship and a store of missiles.
The deal ran until July 2023, when Russia backed out. In the following days Russia fired missiles and drones at grain storage and loading facilities in Ukrainian ports. It also gave notice that any ship entering Ukrainian waters could be considered a legitimate target.
Ukraine then turned to other routes. On 19 July 2023 the International Maritime Organization, the UN shipping body, circulated temporary routes to the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi that led into Romanian territorial waters. On 1 August 2023 the first three ships reached the small Danube port of Izmail under NATO surveillance. The Russian navy made no attempt to interfere.
2026: the attacks reach allied waters
On 11 August 2026 Romania destroyed two Russian-designed Gerbera drones that a civilian vessel spotted near the Neptun Deep gas project. On 12 August a Ukrainian drone barrage knocked out grain terminals at Novorossiysk and hit Russia's Black Sea Fleet base there, killing three people. On 29 August Turkey summoned Ukraine's ambassador after drone strikes hit two Turkish-operated vessels near a Russian port. By 4 September our reporting said shipowners were refusing Ukrainian ports as Russian strikes and Ukrainian retaliation made the sea the world's deadliest for shipping.
In October the strikes moved to NATO waters. On 5 October Ukraine said Russian drones sank the Turkish grain ship Royad Mammadov off Romania, killing two crew. On 6 October two vessels were hit in Bulgaria's zone, the first strike there. The same day a Ukrainian drone set the Liberian-flagged tanker Rio ablaze off Sochi, and all 23 Indian crew were rescued. NATO answered on 20 October, and the Khoryv sank on 23 October.
GOOD TO KNOW
In August 2023 the first three ships to use the Danube route reached Izmail under NATO surveillance, and the Russian navy made no attempt to interfere. Three years later the same corridor is where ships are being sunk.
Why can't NATO simply send warships?
The Montreux Convention guarantees civilian ships complete freedom of passage through the Turkish straits in peacetime. Military vessels are limited in number, tonnage and weaponry, and warships must give Turkey advance notice. After Turkey recognised the invasion as a war in 2022, the material says NATO powers cannot move their warships from the Mediterranean into the Black Sea.
That fits the shape of NATO's package, which is aircraft, radars and drones rather than ships. Our earlier report said any move to send NATO warships depends on Turkey lifting its refusal to let foreign navies in. The reports so far do not say whether Turkey is considering that.
Why does NATO send forensic teams?
Naming who launched a drone is a political decision, and it needs evidence. Analysts quoted in the reports say identifying the equipment, the method of attack and its possible origin matters for investigations and later decisions. Evidence can come from drone debris and damage to ships.
NATO has attributed no attack to any state, though analysts say Russia almost certainly carried them out. Our earlier report noted that the debris teams could give allies the evidence to name a perpetrator, which would turn a technical mission into a political one.
Timeline: 1936 to today
STRAITS AND THE START OF THE WAR
The Montreux Convention is signed, giving Turkey control of the straits between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
Russian soldiers without insignia begin occupying Crimea, the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
THE GRAIN DEAL AND ITS END
Russia launches its full-scale invasion, and maritime grain shipments from Ukraine halt completely.
Russia and Ukraine sign matching grain export deals with Turkey and the UN in Istanbul.
Russian missiles hit the port of Odesa less than a day after the deal is signed.
Russia backs out of the grain deal, then strikes Ukrainian grain facilities and warns that ships entering Ukrainian waters could be targets.
Three ships reach Izmail on the Danube under NATO surveillance, and the Russian navy does not interfere.
SUMMER 2026
Romania destroys two Gerbera drones found drifting near the Neptun Deep gas project.
A Ukrainian drone barrage knocks out Novorossiysk grain terminals and hits Russia's Black Sea Fleet base.
Turkey summons Ukraine's ambassador after drone strikes hit two Turkish-operated vessels near a Russian port.
Shipowners are reported to be refusing Ukrainian ports as attacks throttle Ukraine's grain exports.
OCTOBER 2026
Ukraine says Russian drones sank the Turkish grain ship Royad Mammadov off Romania, killing two crew.
Drones hit two vessels in Bulgaria's Black Sea zone, the first strike in its waters, and a Ukrainian drone sets a tanker ablaze off Sochi.
Romanian jets shoot down two Russian drones over Romanian territorial waters.
NATO says it will send patrol aircraft, radars and drones to the Black Sea after a meeting in Brussels.
A drone sinks the cargo ship Khoryv off Constanta, killing one sailor and leaving three missing.
What to watch next
- The search for the missing. Three Khoryv crew members were still missing when Romanian authorities last reported.
- NATO's details. The alliance has published neither the composition of its package nor a timeline, and Bulgaria says it expects further assistance.
- Attribution. NATO has named no state, and the intelligence teams analysing explosives could produce evidence for allies to do so.
- Calls for more protection. Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria have asked NATO to do more for commercial shipping, and the reports so far do not say whether that would include interception.
Sources
- The Straits Times23 OCT 2026
- The Kyiv Independent23 OCT 2026
- arabnews.com23 OCT 2026
- The Straits Times20 OCT 2026
- BGNES: Breaking News, Latest News and Videos20 OCT 2026
- Mediapart20 OCT 2026
How this article was made: Implica's editorial system wrote it from the news reports above, with the background drawn from Wikipedia: Russo-Ukrainian war, Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits, Black Sea, Black Sea Grain Initiative.