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Who won Brazil's presidential runoff, and what happens now?

Flavio Bolsonaro led the first round and the polls favoured him, yet Lula won the runoff by more than four million votes. Within three days the loser had left Brazil and declared himself its rightful leader.

Published 25 Oct 2026 Updated 29 Oct 2026 By Implica 15 sources 10 min read

THE SHORT ANSWER

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won, with 51.8 per cent of the vote and a lead of nearly 4.4 million votes over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, once every ballot was counted on 25 October. Lula is due to begin a fourth term on 5 January 2027. Bolsonaro says the vote was stolen and has left for Miami. His own party, the electoral court and international observers accept the result. Lula will govern with a hostile Congress and a divided country.

What happened

Brazil held its presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026. Late in the day, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, formerly Lula's lawyer, accepted a request from Lula's campaign to extend voting. It cited public transport problems in three cities in the state of Bahia. His ruling landed around the 5pm cutoff, when some polling stations had already closed. Stations still open could take voters for two more hours, and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazil's elections, paused the count for two hours. When counting resumed with about 14 per cent of tallies reported, Bolsonaro briefly led by 50.02 to 49.98 per cent. The TSE confirmed Lula's win that evening, and with all votes counted his lead was nearly 4.4 million.

Bolsonaro first refused to concede and said he would ask for the result to be annulled because of the extension. Analysts said that was unlikely to succeed, because his loss was more than twice his father's margin in 2022 and his own campaign had also asked for an extension because of rain in the conservative-leaning south. On Monday his party said it accepted the result. President Donald Trump said the vote "looked like another rigged election". Reports say no evidence has emerged of fraud. On the same Monday, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered Bolsonaro to hand over his passports as part of a money laundering investigation. Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing and said he would stay to lead the opposition.

He missed a 24-hour deadline on Tuesday, and Brazilian authorities cancelled his passports. That night he, his wife and two daughters crossed into Argentina. They flew to Guayaquil, Ecuador, and on to Miami, landing on Wednesday 28 October. Lula called the departure "shameful". In an open letter on X, Bolsonaro first called himself "the elected president", deleted that version, then posted another calling himself the rightful "leader" of Brazil. He thanked Argentina's president, Javier Milei, and Trump. The TSE's president, Kassio Nunes Marques, said the election met every legal and constitutional requirement. Trump declined to comment on the letter and repeated that it was "a very strange election".

Why it matters

Brazil has 213 million people and is South America's biggest economy. Lula's win keeps the region's largest country out of step with the right-leaning governments in Argentina, Chile and Colombia, and leaves it at odds with the Trump administration, which wants friendly leaders in the hemisphere. Brazil also holds the world's second-largest reserves of rare earth minerals. At home, the losing candidate is rejecting the result from abroad, and 60 million people, by his count, voted for him. Markets reacted sharply, since investors had bet on a Bolsonaro win.

  • For Lula, He starts a fourth term on 5 January 2027 with the most right-wing Congress of Brazil's democratic era, which could block his welfare and environmental plans.
  • For Flavio Bolsonaro, He is under investigation for alleged money laundering and now lives in the United States. Deutsche Welle reports his immunity from prosecution ends in February.
  • For investors, Futures on the Bovespa, Brazil's benchmark stock index, fell nearly 15 per cent in early trading on 26 October, and the real weakened 12.2 per cent against the dollar.
  • For Washington, Hosting a guest who calls the election a coup complicates its attempt to manage a rift with Brazil. Lula has accused the US of colluding with the Bolsonaros, and Washington denies interfering.

The background: a democracy split between Lula and the Bolsonaros

Dictatorship and the return of elections

A military dictatorship ruled Brazil from 1 April 1964 to 15 March 1985. It began with a coup against President Joao Goulart, planned by the army's commanders. Civilian rule returned in 1985, when Tancredo Neves was chosen in an indirect election. He died before taking office, and his vice president, Jose Sarney, was sworn in instead. In December 1989 Fernando Collor de Mello became the first president elected by popular vote since the military regime. He beat Lula in a two-round race.

Jair Bolsonaro, a former army officer, entered politics in 1988 as a Rio de Janeiro city councillor. He served seven terms as a federal deputy, from 1991 to 2018. Throughout his career he made admiring remarks about the dictatorship. In 1993 he said it had "led to a more sustainable and prosperous Brazil".

Lula's rise, prison and return

Lula is a former metalworker and union leader. On 10 February 1980 he helped found the Workers' Party, a left-wing party. His first race, for the Sao Paulo state government in 1982, ended in defeat with 11 per cent of the vote. He ran for president in 1989, 1994 and 1998 without winning, then was elected in 2002 and 2006, serving from 2003 through 2010. His chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, succeeded him. She was elected in 2010 and 2014 and removed from office in 2016, when her vice president, Michel Temer, took over.

In 2014 Brazil began Operation Car Wash, a corruption investigation that led to many arrests and convictions, including nine cases against Lula. On 5 April 2018 the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil's top court, voted 6-5 to deny his petition against imprisonment, so he had to begin serving a sentence for taking bribes. He was released on 8 November 2019 after 580 days, when the court ended mandatory imprisonment after a first failed appeal. Reuters reports that the charges were later overturned.

The Bolsonaro movement and the 2022 defeat

Jair Bolsonaro was sworn in as president on 1 January 2019. In the 30 October 2022 runoff, Lula beat him with 50.9 per cent of the votes cast. Bolsonaro did not acknowledge the defeat. On 30 December 2022 he arrived in Florida. On 8 January 2023 his supporters attacked the buildings of the Supreme Court, the National Congress and the presidential palace. On 30 June 2023 the TSE barred him from running for public office until 2030 for trying to undermine the 2022 vote. The Supreme Court later sentenced him to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup. He eventually returned to Brazil.

His son Flavio, a senator from Rio de Janeiro, took up the family's political cause. Flavio's brother Eduardo lives in Texas. CBS News reports that a court convicted Eduardo in absentia in June of illegally lobbying the Trump administration, with a four-year sentence, and that a warrant was recently issued for his arrest.

The 2026 campaign

In late October 2025 Lula announced his bid for a fourth term. Some media and opposition figures raised concerns about his age, especially after a fall and brain bleed in December 2024. Corruption was a top concern for many voters. The Banco Master scandal began on 18 November 2025, when the Central Bank ordered the bank's liquidation. On 1 September 2026 Justice Andre Mendonca made public a 218-page federal police report drawn from the phone of former banker Daniel Vorcaro, which triggered an institutional crisis at the STF.

Washington was also part of the story. Trump showed interest in the election, and US senators wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio warning that pressure tactics could harm Brazil's democracy. Implica reported on 7 August that the US had revoked the Brazilian ambassador's visa, after Brazil withheld approval of Trump's ambassador pick. On 2 October the US suspended consular services two days before the vote, though Brazilian police searches found no corroborating evidence of threats.

The first round took place on 4 October. Flavio finished first with 47 per cent to Lula's 45, a gap of about 2.2 million votes, and Brazilian markets rallied on expectations that he would win the runoff. On 11 October Lula's campaign accused Meta, the owner of Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp, of election interference. It said the company had limited the reach of his posts. The TSE gave Meta 48 hours to explain, and Meta called the claims "simply false". The reports so far do not say what the TSE concluded.

A comeback in three weeks

Voters had soured on Lula and his party after years of corruption scandals and rising prices. Reuters also said social change had left him looking out of touch with an app-based economy and its growing ranks of informal workers. An AtlasIntel and Bloomberg poll the Friday before the runoff had Bolsonaro ahead. Yet Lula's campaign, according to the BBC, was driven by street demonstrations and a large social media push. Pollsters credited higher turnout than expected, and the BBC reported that undecided voters swung to him. The result made him the first person elected president of Brazil four times, and the first to win a runoff after placing second in the first round.

GOOD TO KNOW

Lula does not use a mobile phone, yet his comeback was driven in part by a social media push after the first round, including videos in which he addressed his online followers.

How does Brazil's two-round presidential vote work?

Brazilians elect a president and vice president together, as a joint ticket. The first round is held on the first Sunday of October. A candidate who wins more than half of the valid votes is elected outright. If nobody does, the top two candidates meet in a runoff on a later Sunday, which this year was 25 October.

Voting is in person and only on election day, with no postal or early voting. It is mandatory for literate citizens between 18 and 70, and people who skip it without an acceptable excuse pay a small fine.

Why do judges run Brazil's elections?

Unusually, Brazil's elections are run by the judiciary. The TSE and a regional electoral court in each state and the Federal District are headed by judges from other courts. They rule on disputes and possible violations of electoral law. That is why a judge ordered Meta to explain itself, and why a Supreme Court justice's ruling on voting hours became a flashpoint. Eduardo Bolsonaro questioned why the Supreme Court had ruled in a process overseen by the electoral court. Analysts quoted by Reuters said the extension could invite legal challenges.

Timeline: 1964 to today

DICTATORSHIP AND DEMOCRACY

  1. A coup led by the armed forces against President Joao Goulart begins a military dictatorship.

  2. Lula and other union leaders and academics found the Workers' Party.

  3. The dictatorship ends and civilian rule returns.

  4. Fernando Collor de Mello beats Lula in the first presidential vote by popular ballot since the dictatorship.

LULA'S RISE AND PRISON

  1. Lula wins the presidency after losing in 1989, 1994 and 1998.

  2. Operation Car Wash, a corruption investigation, begins.

  3. The Supreme Federal Court votes 6-5 to deny Lula's petition, and he must begin his sentence.

  4. Jair Bolsonaro is sworn in as president.

  5. Lula is released after 580 days in prison.

THE 2022 DEFEAT AND ITS AFTERMATH

  1. Lula beats Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff with 50.9 per cent of the votes cast, and Bolsonaro does not acknowledge the defeat.

  2. Jair Bolsonaro arrives in Florida a day before his term ends.

  3. Bolsonaro supporters attack the Supreme Court, Congress and the presidential palace.

  4. The TSE bars Jair Bolsonaro from running for public office until 2030.

THE 2026 CAMPAIGN

  1. Lula suffers a fall and a brain bleed, which later feeds concern about his age.

  2. Lula announces his bid for a fourth term.

  3. The Central Bank orders the liquidation of Banco Master, starting a scandal that reaches politicians and Supreme Court justices.

  4. The US revokes the Brazilian ambassador's visa after Brazil withholds approval of Trump's ambassador pick.

  5. A federal police report on Daniel Vorcaro's phone is made public and triggers a crisis at the Supreme Federal Court.

  6. The US suspends consular services in Brazil two days before the vote.

  7. Flavio Bolsonaro finishes first in the first round with 47 per cent to Lula's 45, forcing a runoff.

THE RUNOFF AND AFTER

  1. Lula's campaign accuses Meta of election interference, and the TSE gives the company 48 hours to explain.

  2. Lula wins the runoff by nearly 4.4 million votes after a two-hour extension of voting and a pause in the count.

  3. Flavio Bolsonaro's party accepts the result, and Justice Alexandre de Moraes orders him to hand over his passports.

  4. Bolsonaro misses the deadline, authorities cancel his passports, and his family crosses into Argentina that night.

  5. Bolsonaro lands in Miami and declares himself Brazil's rightful leader.

What to watch next

  • The annulment bid. Bolsonaro said he would seek to have the result annulled, and the reports so far do not say whether he has filed anything.
  • The investigation. The money laundering probe continues, and Deutsche Welle reports that his immunity from prosecution ends in February.
  • Lula's inauguration. His new term is set to begin on 5 January 2027, when he will face a Congress that analysts expect to be hostile.
  • Washington's stance. Trump has declined to comment on Bolsonaro's letter, and a Democratic US congressman has asked him to tell Congress whether his administration played a role in Bolsonaro's exit.

Sources

How this article was made: Implica's editorial system wrote it from the news reports above, with the background drawn from Wikipedia: History of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro, 2026 Brazilian general election.

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