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Who will govern Israel after the 2026 election?

Israel voted on Tuesday in the first election since the October 2023 attack, and the count has produced no clear winner. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc leads, but it is short of a majority, and a record Arab vote has complicated both sides' paths to a government.

Published 29 Oct 2026 By Implica 11 sources 8 min read

THE SHORT ANSWER

Nobody has won yet. With about 93 percent of votes counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is projected at 53 seats and challenger Gadi Eisenkot's bloc at 48, and a government needs 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament. Arab parties are projected at a record 19 seats, but most Jewish parties say they will not work with them. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister until a government forms. President Isaac Herzog will start consulting party leaders next week, once official results are out.

What happened

Israel voted on Tuesday, 27 October. Exit polls that night showed deadlock, with Netanyahu's bloc at about 50 seats and Eisenkot's at 52 to 53. As real ballots were counted, Netanyahu's side pulled ahead. By late Wednesday, with almost 93 percent of votes counted, it was projected at 53 seats against 48 for Eisenkot's bloc. Likud, Netanyahu's party, was projected to be the largest single party, ahead of Eisenkot's Yashar. Turnout was a record: 77.7 percent at 10 p.m., the highest at that hour since 2001.

Netanyahu spoke at about 3 a.m. on Wednesday. He called for a "strong, right-wing" government and said none should be formed that relies on Arab parties. Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, said the results showed a lack of confidence in Netanyahu. On Thursday, Netanyahu's camp claimed Arab parties had "stolen" the election. An Israeli police source said there was "no investigative or intelligence-based supporting evidence" for the claim. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, called for the arrest of Arab party leaders over alleged Qatari funding. The reports describe his allegations as unsubstantiated. US President Donald Trump said he would "take a look" at the coalition talks. A US official called reports that Washington preferred an outcome "false and premature".

The count is not final. More than 500,000 special ballots from soldiers, diplomats and others voting away from home were still to be counted, and they could move seats. Final results could come as early as Thursday evening. The shekel fell about 2 percent against the dollar on the uncertainty, its biggest drop since June.

Why it matters

This is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed, and many Israelis treated it as a verdict on Netanyahu, who is 77 and Israel's longest-serving prime minister. It has also redrawn the map of Arab political power. Whoever governs will probably need partners they have ruled out, and if talks fail, Israelis could be voting again within months.

The reports so far do not say how the stalemate will be broken.

  • For Netanyahu and his allies, His bloc is ahead but short of 61. His path to another term depends on drawing rivals into a coalition, and analysts quoted by Al Jazeera suggest a unity government that could include Eisenkot, though that is far from certain.
  • For Eisenkot and his partners, His bloc trails by five seats and is short of a majority. Ahead of the vote he ruled out a minority government backed by Arab parties, and two fellow bloc leaders say they will not sit in a government with them.
  • For Arab parties and voters, The Joint List and Ra'am have a record result and real leverage. Their leader Ahmad Tibi says they would help Eisenkot form a government but not Netanyahu, and polls found crime in Arab towns was voters' top issue.
  • For the public and investors, A long caretaker period leaves less room for big decisions, and markets reacted to the uncertainty.

The background: a system where no party can govern alone

A parliament built for coalitions

Israelis vote for party lists, not individual candidates, and the 120 Knesset seats are shared out in proportion to votes. A party must clear an electoral threshold to win any seats. It was 1 percent until 1988, then 1.5 percent, then 2 percent from 2003. On 11 March 2014 the Knesset raised it to the current 3.25 percent, about four seats.

No party has ever won a majority, and none has won more than 56 seats, so every government has been a coalition. In 1992 Israel adopted direct election of the prime minister to produce more stable governments. It was used in 1996, 1999 and 2001, then abandoned after 2001 because it had not delivered that stability.

Arab citizens and their vote

Israel declared independence on 14 May 1948. Between then and the Nationality Law of 14 July 1952, there technically were no Israeli citizens. Most Arabs who remained were granted citizenship but lived under martial law in the early years. After the 1967 Six-Day War, Arab citizens could contact Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza for the first time, and the lifting of military rule led to more political activism.

Tensions rose in October 2000, when 12 Arab citizens and one man from Gaza were killed while protesting the government's response to the Second Intifada. The government set up the Or Commission in response. Arab parties have also faced attempts to ban them. Balad was banned by the Central Elections Committee in December 2002, and in 2009 two Arab lists were disqualified, a decision the Supreme Court overturned by eight votes to one.

Arab turnout then fell. Analysts at the Israel Democracy Institute described the slide as seemingly irreversible: from about 75 percent in 1999 to 44.6 percent in 2021 and 53.2 percent in 2022. Arab parties won 15 seats in 2020, their previous best.

Netanyahu's long career

Netanyahu was prime minister from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. He led the opposition for a year and returned after the 2022 election, when his bloc won a majority and formed a coalition of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Noam, the Religious Zionist Party, United Torah Judaism and Shas. He began his sixth term on 29 December 2022. The government was described as the most right-wing in Israeli history, and its first months centered on a proposed overhaul of the judiciary.

A full term and a tense campaign

The Hamas-led attack came on 7 October 2023. The Knesset elected in 2022 then became the first to complete its full four-year term since 1988, and it formally dissolved on 17 July 2026. On 22 August, Netanyahu vowed to block Palestinian statehood while he remains prime minister.

The campaign was tense. Likud and Religious Zionism announced plans to send about 2,000 activists to Arab polling places, which Arab parties say was meant to scare voters. Arab communities also reported long lines and slow identification on election day. Polls over the past four months had consistently projected that Eisenkot's Yashar would overtake Likud. It did not, and Eisenkot's bloc finished below expectations.

The count so far

Most mainstream right-wing parties had vowed to work with Eisenkot to unseat Netanyahu, while Arab parties had said they were open to supporting that bloc. The numbers did not give it a majority. Netanyahu's side holds 53 seats, Eisenkot's 48 and the Arab parties 19. Netanyahu's bloc does not count the Arab parties as allies, and neither side has a route to 61 without partners it has publicly refused.

GOOD TO KNOW

Arab turnout fell from about 75 percent in 1999 to 44.6 percent in 2021. This week it was about 80 percent, above the national figure of 77.7 percent.

How does a government actually get formed?

After the election, the president consults the elected party leaders and picks the Knesset member most likely to form a viable government. That is usually the leader of the largest party, but it does not have to be. That person has up to 42 days to negotiate and then needs a confidence vote of at least 61 members.

Until a new government is sworn in, Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister. If no one can put together a majority, another election could follow in several months.

What are double-envelope ballots?

Most Israelis vote only at the polling station tied to their address. Soldiers, diplomats, sailors, police on duty and some others vote elsewhere, so their ballot goes in an inner envelope inside an outer one carrying their identifying details. These are counted last, at the Knesset. One team checks the outer envelope against the voter list to make sure nobody voted twice. Another team opens the inner envelopes, which keeps the vote anonymous. More than 500,000 of them were still uncounted, which is why seat totals can still move.

Timeline: 1948 to today

FOUNDING AND THE ARAB MINORITY

  1. Israel declares independence, calling for a Jewish state with equality of social and political rights.

  2. The Israeli Nationality Law is passed; most Arabs who remained were granted citizenship but lived under martial law in the early years.

  3. After the Six-Day War, Arab citizens can contact Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and the lifting of military rule brings more political activism.

ELECTORAL CHANGES AND UNREST

  1. The threshold for winning Knesset seats, 1 percent until then, is raised to 1.5 percent.

  2. Israel adopts direct election of the prime minister, hoping for more stable governments.

  3. Netanyahu begins his first period as prime minister, which lasts until 1999.

  4. Arab turnout in the general election is about 75 percent, the high point before a long slide.

  5. Twelve Arab citizens and one man from Gaza are killed during protests, and the government sets up the Or Commission.

  6. Direct election of the prime minister is abandoned after the 2001 vote, having failed to produce more stable governments.

NETANYAHU'S LATER TERMS

  1. Netanyahu returns as prime minister and holds office until 2021.

  2. The Knesset approves raising the electoral threshold to 3.25 percent.

  3. Arab parties win 15 seats, their best result until now.

  4. Arab turnout falls to 44.6 percent, and Netanyahu moves into opposition.

  5. After the 2022 election, Netanyahu is sworn in for a sixth term at the head of a hardline coalition.

THE 2026 ELECTION

  1. Hamas leads an attack on Israel, and the wars that follow frame the next election.

  2. The Knesset formally dissolves after becoming the first in decades to complete a full four-year term.

  3. Netanyahu vows to block Palestinian statehood while he remains prime minister.

  4. Israel votes, and exit polls show neither Netanyahu's bloc nor Eisenkot's near a majority, with Arab parties winning a record share.

  5. With most votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc is at 53 seats, Eisenkot's at 48 and Arab parties at 19, and neither side can govern alone.

What to watch next

  • The final count. Results could come as early as Thursday evening, and the 500,000 or more double-envelope ballots could shift seats.
  • Herzog's consultations. President Isaac Herzog will start meeting party leaders next week and then choose who gets the first try at forming a government.
  • Eisenkot's partners. Ahmad Tibi says Arab parties could back an Eisenkot minority government, but two of Eisenkot's bloc leaders refuse to serve alongside them.
  • Small parties near the threshold. In one partial count, the Reservists were at 2.6 percent and other lists were lower, short of the 3.25 percent needed, so the final tallies could change the seat arithmetic.

Sources

How this article was made: Implica's editorial system wrote it from the news reports above, with the background drawn from Wikipedia: Elections in Israel, Arab citizens of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, 2026 Israeli legislative election.

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